Setup Scores

A single 0–100 score that rolls up seven things we track on each stock — valuation, quality, how far it has fallen, what insiders & institutions are doing, options, sentiment and the macro backdrop — into one read on how attractive it looks right now. Higher = more attractive. Sorted by total score.

📈 Trading Signals Backtest (2020-Present)

Performance metrics across 5,453 setups computed historically at the exact bottom dates (no look-ahead bias).

🟢 BUY (Bottom Fish / Buy-in)Total Signals: 1,359

42.1%60d Win Rate

Triggered when quality is high, valuation is low, and stock has deep drawdown.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-29.7%

Avg 60d Bounce+36.3%

🔴 SELL (Risk Avoidance / Sell-out)Total Signals: 1,470

40.5%60d Win Rate

Triggered on value trap, overvaluation, or excessive retail crowd topping.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-24.8%

Avg Score33.5

⚪ HOLD (Hold / Watch)Total Signals: 2,624

HOLD/ HOLD (Hold / Watch)

Wait-and-see or normal positions on moderate quality/drawdown.

Avg Drawdown at Trigger-28.6%

Avg Score54.8

💡 Empirical Summary: 🟢 BUY signals occur on average at a deep -29.7% drawdown, with a 42.1% 60-day bounce rate and +36.3% average bounce. 🔴 SELL signals warn of overvaluation or toppings to avoid value traps.

All scored Live candidates

All · 517 Deep Value · 111 Quality on Sale · 18 Watch · 264 Crowded Long · 16 Value Trap Risk · 85 Avoid / Topping · 23

Ticker	Total	Verdict	Value	Quality	Drawdown	Smart Money	Options	Sentiment	Macro
LULU	737/7	BUYQuality on Sale	92	71	100	78	11	56	56
FICO	727/7	BUYQuality on Sale	85	81	70	79	38	50	56
PTC	717/7	BUYQuality on Sale	78	97	72	64	34	60	56
MKC	707/7	BUYQuality on Sale	89	85	78	50	24	69	56
PDD	707/7	BUYQuality on Sale	96	84	78	50	45	29	56
FDS	707/7	BUYQuality on Sale	78	79	93	52	40	61	56
CPRT	697/7	BUYQuality on Sale	73	77	73	81	42	50	56
PYPL	677/7	BUYQuality on Sale	96	73	86	42	36	30	56
RMD	677/7	BUYQuality on Sale	72	88	70	70	19	51	56
TRI	627/7	SELLQuality on Sale	62	70	100	50	56	19	56
ADBE	627/7	BUYQuality on Sale	60	88	76	55	4	63	56
ACN	627/7	BUYQuality on Sale	83	73	83	50	2	31	56
VEEV	607/7	BUYQuality on Sale	46	82	86	83	3	39	56
PAYX	587/7	BUYQuality on Sale	37	71	79	57	59	58	56
NFLX	567/7	BUYQuality on Sale	23	90	72	60	37	62	56
ALNY	517/7	HOLDQuality on Sale	25	66	77	79	27	30	56
NOW	417/7	SELLQuality on Sale	0	75	81	57	0	30	56
HOOD	407/7	SELLQuality on Sale	5	71	76	43	0	44	56